Based on how the 2024-2025 offseason went for Ross Atkins and the Toronto Blue Jays, many were probably not surprised when star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. revealed on Tuesday morning that he and the team were far from reaching a deal on the first day of Spring Training camp.

Guerrero Jr. is entering the final year of his contract with the team, and it’s no secret that he’s seeking a long-term deal comparable to the AAV of Juan Soto’s record-setting contract with the New York Mets in the offseason. Additionally, Guerrero Jr. is coming off one of the best seasons of his MLB career, slashing .323 with a .940 OPS, 30 homers and 103 RBIs.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s MLB Insider Jeff Passan mentioned on Sportsnet’s Blair & Barker show that the Blue Jays management made a substantial offer for the first baseman, which Guerrero Jr. ultimately declined. For many fans, losing homegrown talent—especially someone who wants to stay—feels like a moment to grab the pitchforks and storm the Rogers Centre. However, Guerrero Jr. now testing free agency presents Atkins and Mark Shapiro with a pivotal decision before the July 31st trade deadline.

On one hand, Guerrero Jr.’s decision to turn down a sizeable contract puts pressure on himself. Of course, he’ll need to replicate or exceed last year’s performance to secure an offer similar to Soto’s, but it seems to be a bet he’s willing to make. In Tuesday’s media scrum, through his translator Hector Lebron, Guerrero Jr. expressed that his MLB career goal is to win a World Series and give the ring to his father, Vladimir Guerrero, (who once played for the Montreal Expos). He said that come the end of the 2025 season, he’ll look to find the best place to achieve that goal. Like all professional athletes, he wants to win, and the Blue Jays have a unique opportunity this year to be a frisky team in the toughest division in baseball—the AL East. The only issue is that all other teams in the division have also improved this offseason.

The Blue Jays’ season will be determined in the first two months. If they can keep pace with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles—unlike last year when they found themselves eight games back of both teams heading into June—they might have a shot. If the Blue Jays roster can stay healthy early on, they’ll have a chance to make things work and possibly add the bat or two they’re missing in the lineup around the deadline.

The best-case scenario, although modest given the team’s three playoff appearances in the last five seasons without a win, would be getting to the postseason and winning a game. This could potentially attract Guerrero Jr. to sign a deal in the offseason or lure other talent to make a run with the team in 2026.

On the other hand, if the team is plagued by injuries or gets off to a slow start like they did in 2024, it gives management an opportunity to re-evaluate and move players on expiring deals like Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette or Chris Bassitt at the deadline. The team’s farm system is depleted, except for SS Arjun Nimmala, RHP Trey Yesavage and LHP Ricky Tiedemann, who is out until 2026 due to Tommy John surgery. The trade deadline could give the franchise a chance to reset and potentially add some young talent for a possible 2028 or 2029 division run.

Even if they signed Guerrero Jr., the team still has a lot of issues at the helm. The rotation is aging, the bullpen was non-existent last season, plus the team has several underperforming contracts in the lineup. While I don’t mean to be a pessimist (though given the last five years, it’s not hard to be), maybe this entire Guerrero Jr. contract fallout is the wake-up call the franchise needs to finally find a direction.